Larry McDonald predicts a 30% S&P 500 decline over the next year. But the founder of The Bear Traps Report also sees opportunities in long-term bonds, beaten-down stocks and companies that own hard assets.
New York Times’ bestselling author Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report, returns to The Julia La Roche Show to explain why he believes the market’s surface strength hides serious stress underneath. He points to cracks in AI data center financing: canceled data center IPOs, collapsing CoreWeave bond prices, and a surge in convertible bond issuance from neoclouds, which he calls the “last saloon” warning sign last seen in 1999 and 2021. With consumers hit by higher rates, soaring diesel and jet fuel costs, and iconic brands like Nike, Home Depot and McDonald’s down sharply, McDonald argues the Fed is “faking” its hiking cycle and that smart money now expects three rate cuts before three hikes. He describes an internal market crash masked by passive flows into mega-cap tech, explains the year-end “convergence trade,” and makes his case for why gold could run from $4,000 to $6,500 and why silver may be one of the best trades of the next 12 months
Stocks fluctuated near their all-time highs as traders looked ahead to the start of the earnings season and inflation data that will be key in shaping the Federal Reserve outlook. Larry McDonald, founder at The Bear Traps Report, discusses bond market stress, equity moves, and how AI related mark-ups are distorting S&P 500 earnings potential.
Michelle Makori, President & Editor-in-Chief of Miles Franklin Media, speaks with Larry McDonald, political risk expert, New York Times bestselling author and founder of The Bear Traps Report, a research platform focused on global systemic risk. With more than 1 million books sold in over 12 languages, McDonald brings decades of market experience to a discussion about mounting stress beneath the stock market, the historic crash in bonds, & why the $40 trillion U.S. debt burden could reshape the outlook for gold, silver and hard assets.
Lawrence McDonald, founder of the Bear Traps Report and former Lehman Brothers VP, discusses rising bond yields, weakness beneath the stock market, energy-driven economic risks, credit-market stress, and how investors may navigate opportunities across defensive stocks, commodities, and hard assets. *This video was recorded on September 22, 2026.